Factors associated with high levels of accidents by Motorcycle taxi drivers Godwin Asiimwe Bachelor of Statistics, Msc. Statistics (Makerere University) Assistant Lecturer, Department of Management Science Makerere University Business School Mbaga Tuzinde Bsc. Quantitative Economics, Msc. Quantitative Economics (Makerere University) Assistant Lecturer, Department of Management Science Makerere University Business School Humphrey Anjoga Bsc. Business Computing, Msc. Information Technology Management (Makerere University) Assistant Lecturer, Department of Business Computing
Makerere University Business School September, 2008 Abstract The escalating number of boda-boda related accidents according to the recent reports from police, has posed an immense mystery to the concerned authorities. While Kisaalita, W, Sentongo, J. (2007) viewed the development of motorcycle taxi (boda-boda) service as a spontaneous entrepreneurial response, parallel to that is their safety concern. The purpose of this paper is to identify major causes of accidents by the boda boda riders and hence provide plausible remedies to the problem.
Methodology: A survey was taken in the 3 city suburbs of Kampala (Kawempe, and Kasubi, Kisenyi) using simple random sampling technique. A sample of 120 operators was selected and a well structured questionnaire administered to them. Logistic regression analyses were used to obtain adjusted odds ratio estimates for each of the operator related factors considered for this study. Findings: Of the 120 motorcycle operators that were interviewed, 66% of them had been involved in accidents before, 56% had a ridding permit, and 43% owned their own motorcycles, while only 65% lived with their families in Kampala.
From the application of the logit models, it emerges that the most important variables contributing to risks of accidents by boda boda operators were motorcycle ownership, family location, experience, age and ownership of a permit. Conclusion and Recommendations: The study demonstrates how crucial boda boda ownership and age difference are to risks of accidents, suggesting interventions into sensitization as well as helping boda boda riders to acquire their own boda bodas.
Key words: Motorcyclist demographics, ownership, risk of accidents, and logistic model. Literature When Cities develop, traffic also develop hand-in-hand the same forces that draw inhabitants to assemble in large urban areas also lead to sometimes intolerable levels of traffic congestion on urban streets. (JTRC, 2007) For Uganda’s case, the population of Kampala has been on the increase from 2,850 in 1912, 24,100 in 1948 to 458,503 by 1980, 774,241 in 1991 and 1,208,544 in 2002 at average annual growth rates ranging from 3. 14% to 5. 61% (UBOS, 2002).
This population increase has given birth to the current crisis of transport management that is believed to not only delay activities with the city but also pose risk of death to many lives thereby destroying humanity (Wegener 2001; Lwasa 2002). One of Uganda’s common means of transport is the motorcycle taxi (boda boda) which provides quick flexible and an inexpensive way to travelers of the low income status. According to Malmberg (1994), Boda boda services are known to have originated from Busia County of Tororo District in Eastern Uganda in the mid-1960s during the time of rampant black market and smuggling along the Uganda Kenya boarder.
Boda bodas then were used to ease the smuggling from boarder to boarder hence the name boda boda. The escalating number of boda-boda related accidents according to the recent reports from police, has remained a big puzzle to the concerned authorities. While Kisaalita and Sentongo (2007) viewed the development of motorcycle taxi (boda-boda) service as a spontaneous entrepreneurial response, parallel to that is their safety concern. In this study we will focus on motorcycles (boda boda) since they are the commonly used means of low capacity transport in Kampala by mainly the low income group (those who do not own cars).
According to Howe (2005), Boda bodas have had a tremendous advantage over other means of transport because of their flexibility, cost effectiveness, and ability to sail through small and poor routes all of which characterize the nature of developing countries specifically Kampala. His findings further revealed that in congested conditions, the motorcycles are most valued for their ability to weave through the traffic, shorten door-to-door journey times and are used by middle income earners when ‘in a hurry’.
It is evident that boda boda services fulfill important economic and social functions, yet little is known about hindrances to their operations that is believed to have causal effect on accidents. A study carried out by Sida (2006), indicated efficient and affordable transport benefits the poor and will contribute to economic growth, since it is a prerequisite for industry and business development hence transportation directly affects the economic efficiency of cities and the well-being of their inhabitants. Literature has also highlighted clear differences in the ownership patterns of bicycle and motorcycle boda boda.
Howe (2005) revealed that most (71%) bicycle boda boda are operated by the owner, compared to 44% of motorcycles. Correspondingly, hiring of bicycles for operation comprises about 16% of the total, but 56% of motorcycles. This suggests that motorcycle hire is a profitable business that is entered into by people who are already engaged in other economic activities however, the effect this status on risks to accidents was not handled in the study. In a similar study conducted by Lardelli-Claret et al. , (2005), found that river experience, as one of the significant factors measuring risk of two wheeled vehicle accidents. This was in agreement with several studies, Haworth (1997), and Lin, et al. (2003) however; Mullin, Jackson and Langley et al. (2000) found no association. Problem statement According to the Traffic commissioner, Kasiima (2008), “boda boda (motorcyclists) account for over 70% of all major fatal road accidents. ” Empirical research into this area is inadequate and little is known about the factors associated with motorcyclists’ increased risk to accidents.
Kagolo and Kariuki (2008), have reported that “the orthopedic centre at Mulago hospital which has the capacity of 40 beds is always full” with most of the victims from boda boda accidents in the city and its suburbs. The police of Uganda have attempted to describe most motorcyclists at risk as young risk takers without valid ridding permits suggesting that boda bodas should be removed from most of the urban centers, these allegations need to be supported with empirical evidence.
This research seeks to examine the factors that are associated with operators’ risk of accidents in Kampala city. Aim The aim of this study is to examine the factors associated with risk of accidents by Boda boda riders (operators). Specifically the study will examine the following objectives; 1. To examine the factor associated with high risk of accidents by boda-boda riders. 2. To assess the level of accidents by the boda boda riders Research Questions 1What are the factors associated with high risk of accidents by boda-boda riders? What is the level of accidents by the boda boda riders? Methodology Data collection and Analysis Primary data was collected from a sample of 120 boda boda riders obtained form Leslie Kish (1965) famous formulae in a cross-sectional survey which covered three city suburbs of Kampala (kawempe, Kasubi, and Kisenyi). These suburbs were selected because they were characterized by high traffic and boda boda operations. Respondents (boda boda riders) were selected using systematic random sampling technique. Data entry and analysis was done using EpiData and STATA respectively.
A binary logistic regression model was used during analysis of boda boda operator’s risk to accidents based on the independent factors. Unlike the linear regression model, estimation of coefficients of the logistic model was by Maximum likelihood method hence the odds of the dependent variable predicted from the values of the independent were used to make inferences about the effects. A test of the goodness of fit of the model was carried out using the Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square statistic and Wald test statistics for marginal effect of the estimated parameters.
Stepwise regression to obtain a parsimonious model was performed during analysis at 10% level of significance. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Descriptive statistics Cross tabulations and frequency tables were used to describe the characteristics of the research respondents by age group, marital status, and period of operation in boda boda business, family location and level of education as presented in the tables below. Table 4. 1: Highest Level of education attained | |Frequency |Valid Percent | | |None |10 |8. | | |Primary |44 |36. 7 | | |Secondary |66 |55. 0 | | |Total |120 |100. 0 | Source primary data Table 4. 1 above reveals that the majority (55 percent) of the boda boda operators had attended secondary level of education (ordinary level), while only about 8 percent did not attend any formal education at all. Table 4. 2: Marital Status | |Frequency |Valid Percent | | |Single |25 |20. | | |Married |91 |75. 8 | | |Divorced |4 |3. 3 | | |Total |120 |100. 0 | Source primary data According to the findings in table 4. 2, majority (about 76 percent) of the respondents were married and only about 3 percent had divorced. This implies that many of the persons in this business have a responsibility to make. Table 4. 3: Table describing variables under study |Family |Permit |Own |Had an Accident | | |Location |ownership |Motorcycle | | | |Frequency |Percent |Frequency | | |25 &below |26 &above |Yes |No |Yes |No | |Yes |6 |35 |29 |12 |7 |6 | |No |46 |29 |23 |56 |17 |17 | |Total |52 |64 |52 |68 |24 |23 | |LR Chi2 (1) |25. 344 |19. 343 |0. 055 | |Pr |0. 000 |0. 000 |0. 813 | The analysis of the marginal effect of age group, motorcycle ownership status, and possession of a permit on operators’ risk to accidents (table 4. ) revealed that factors; age group, and motorcycle ownership status were very important in predicting operators’ risk of accidents (p < 0. 001), while having a ridding permit was found to have no significant marginal effect to risks of accidents (p>0. 05). Logistic Regression model Output LR chi2(11)= 37. 22 Prob > chi2= 0. 000 Pseudo R2 = 0. 336 Log likelihood= -36. 699 |Accident |Odds Ratio |Std. Error |P>|z| |[95% Conf. Interval] | |Status | | | | | |Age(