Production Planning and Sales Forecast – Haleeb Foods Essay

Executive sum-up

With on-going production losingss and inability to carry through market demand ; company should revise its gross revenues calculating method harmonizing to new and latest methods. Heavy losingss are being incurred due to hapless stock list controls, botching of perishable goods and on non being able to run into the market demands.

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Following stairss should be taken to cut down costs and increase net incomes.

A commission should reexamine the current prediction method
Decomposition method should be looked into and employed in calculating the merchandise gross revenues, since it considersTrend, Cyclic, Seasonal and Erraticevents while calculating
By reexamining and altering the current method a immense sum of gross can be generated along with cost film editing. The undermentioned studies contain several prediction methods being employed by push type Fast Moving Consumer Good companies. The most suitable and balanced method would beDecomposition Method, which has been illustrated with an illustration in the study.

Introduction:

Production planning means to procure the production purposes and to come close the resources which would be needed to accomplish these purposes. It prepares a thorough scheme to accomplish the production ends cost-effectively and within clip. It preplans each measure in the production. It forward tell the issues, which may happen in the production procedure. It tries to extinguish these jobs. And acquire rid of the grounds of wastage.

Production be aftering rectifies two chief jobs given below and provides solutions for them.

What work should be done in what precedency and kind?
How long would it take to finish different undertakings?
So, production planning decides what ends are to be achieved and how to accomplish these ends. It shows the class of action taken to acquire the coveted consequences. It is based on gross revenues calculating and is a stipulation of production.

Aims of Production Planning:

Following are the 12 major aims of production planning:

Effective use of assets: Production planning helps in efficient deployment of assets, working capableness and equipments. This consequences in cost effectivity and high efficiency of operations.
Stable Production Flow: Production planning ensures a stable and hardy flow of production procedure. Such that all the equipment and machinery is utilized to maximal capacity. This helps in a smooth productions procedure without any unstable production end products.
Calculating resources: Production planning helps to come close the capital and resources like work forces, stuffs, etc. The rough is made on ciphering gross revenues prognosis. So production scheme is kept to run into the market demands.
Ensure optimum stock list size: Production planning makes certain that an appropriate stock list is kept.This would in bend aid in avoiding stock deficit or cost incurred due to inordinate storage or stock list edifice. Necessary stocks are maintained. Natural stuff stocks are maintained at a sensible degree in order to fulfill the production demands. Finished goods stock is besides kept at a sensible size to run into the client demand without making any bottle cervix.

Synchronize Department Activities: Production planning helps in synchronising the interdepartmental activities. For e.g. Production would maintain the procurance section in cringle about a future rise in production activities and running out of natural stuff if procurance does non catch up with the gait. This coordination would ensue in net income to the organisation.
Diminish wastage of natural stuffs: Production planning reduces wastage of natural stuffs. It ensures appropriate stock list of natural stuffs and stuffs managing and storage. This helps in decrease of natural stuff wastage. It besides ensures quality control and quality confidence which would assist in minimising the figure of culls.

Addition in man-hour productiveness: Production planning improves the man-hour productiveness which insures maximal use of adult male power. Technical preparation is imparted to the workers and the net incomes are transferred to the labour in the signifier of an addition in rewards and other inducements. Workers are motivated with better rewards and pay graduated table and therefore overall productiveness is increased.
Aid in spread outing and capturing the market: Production planning ensures that the right merchandises are delivered to the right clients at the right clip and in right measure. This is due to the handiness of merchandise in the coveted market and gives a competitory border to the company against possible rivals by capturing the market.
Better working environment and conditions: Planing the production in progress makes certain that the staff is non over worked or under worked at any clip. It provides the staff with regular burden of work without emphasizing them. It ensures better working hours, vacations and paid foliages along with other inducements.

Enforce entire quality direction: Production planning ensures that all quality criterions are being observed and that no action is taken outside criterion runing process of the company. Staff is made quality witting of the merchandise by preparation, counsel and quality circles.
Consequence in consumer contentment: Production planning helps in a regular supply of green goods and services to the consumers ensuing in consumer satisfaction.
Minimize the production costs:Production planning consequences in most advantageous use of assets, and it decrease of waste or trash stuff. It besides helps in keeping most favourable size of stock lists. All this consequences in a noticeable lessening in the production costs. ( Akrani, 2012 )
Literature Reappraisal:

A portion of production planning is stock list control which is an indispensable and major constituent of production planning. Inventory direction ensures that stock degrees are maintained harmonizing to desired degrees. Excessively much stock could ensue in high stock list degrees which would incur high storage costs, and excessively less stock would non be able to provide for high client demand. This portion of production planning has been researched and work on for a long clip now. Better production planning and maintaining equal stock list degrees would assist in increased net incomes since stock list costs are cut and production procedure is made more organized. In order to maintain equal stock lists, a gross revenues prognosis is compulsory which would assist in make up one’s minding the right natural stuff or finished good stock for future gross revenues.

Several prediction methods are appropriate in connexion with stock list control. Such prognosiss normally take in history little intervals of clip. Very seldom a clip span of a twelvemonth or more is taken into consideration. By and large two theoretical accounts are used to calculate gross revenues sing the old informations.

• Extrapolation of Historical Data:

Forecast is based on extrapolation of old demand informations. Such a technique is easy to and effectual, apart from being speedy. Several methods are employed to calculate gross revenues depending upon their truth

Method 1: Percentage over Last Year

This method requires a per centum figure that is expected as an addition or lessening in the gross revenues over the twelvemonth. The new per centum addition or lessening in gross revenues is added into the old informations to obtain a new gross revenues prognosis. This information can merely be implied if a big old informations is available and expected rise or autumn in gross revenues can be guessed accurately. Depending upon the opportunity factor in this method, it is non dependable and can be slightly inaccurate. ( Edwards, 2015 )

Example: Method 1: Percentage Over Last Year

The Percentage over Last Year expression multiplies gross revenues informations from the old twelvemonth by a factor you specify and so undertakings that consequence over the following twelvemonth. This method might be utile in budgeting to imitate the affect of a specified growing rate or when gross revenues history has a important seasonal constituent.

Forecast specifications: Multiplication factor. For illustration, stipulate 110 in the processing option to increase the old twelvemonth ‘s gross revenues history informations by 10 per centum.

Required gross revenues history: One twelvemonth for ciphering the prognosis, plus the figure of clip periods that are required for measuring the prognosis public presentation ( periods of best tantrum ) that you specify.

January prognosis peers 128+12.8 = 140.8 rounded to 141.

February prognosis peers 117+11.7 = 128.7 rounded to 129.

March prognosis peers 115+11.5 = 126.5 rounded to 127. ( Edwards, 2015 )

Method 2: Calculated per centum over last twelvemonth:

This method compares the gross revenues of a specific period in a twelvemonth to the gross revenues of the same specific period in the old twelvemonth. The comparing gives the per centum addition or lessening in the gross revenues, and so this per centum is multiplied with each period to give out prognosis.

A one twelvemonth gross revenues history along with figure of periods of gross revenues order history is required for calculating through this method. Short term seasonal demands can be forecasted through this method with a clear indicant of addition or lessening in gross revenues. ( Edwards, 2015 )

Example: Method 2: Calculated Percentage Over Last Year

Forecast specifications: Scope of gross revenues history to utilize in ciphering the rate of growing. For illustration, stipulate n =4 in the processing option, which shows the gross revenues history for the 4 most recent period are to be compared to same 4 periods of the old twelvemonth. Use the deliberate ratio to do the projection for the following twelvemonth.

January prognosis peers 128 ? 0.9766 = 125.00 rounded to 125.

February prognosis peers 117 ? 0.9766 = 114.26 rounded to 114.

March prognosis peers 115 ? 0.9766 = 112.31 rounded to 112. ( Edwards, 2015 )

Method3: Moving Average Method:

Harmonizing to this method, prediction is done of the twelvemonth in consideration by taking an norm of the existent gross revenues of the proceeding few old ages. The larger the figure of old ages taken to calculate, the more accurate would be the prediction. ( Nagarajan, 2004 )

moving

Example: Method 3: Moving Average Method

Moving

When a prognosis is developed for the following period, the gross revenues in the oldest period are dropped from the norm and are replaced by gross revenues in the newest period ; hence the name “moving averages” . If the company operates in a stable environment a short two or three twelvemonth traveling norm may be utile. Furthermore, if a house is in an industry which exhibits cyclical fluctuations, the traveling norm should utilize informations, equal to length of a rhythm or a longer averaging period. ( Havaldar, 2010 )

The advantages of this method are:

Relatively simple method
Easy to cipher
Widely used for short term or average term gross revenues prognosiss
The disadvantages are

Unable O predict a downswing or upturn in the market
Can non be used for long term prognosis
Historical information is needed
Method 4: Weighted Traveling Average:

In traveling mean method all the informations taken under consideration is given equal weightage.If three old ages are taken to calculate a 4th twelvemonth. The first three old ages are each given a weight age of 1/3.But in leaden moving norm, different weight age is given to different informations harmonizing to their importance.All the weight age must add up to 1 in the terminal. ( Don Dayananda, 2002 )

The expression for this method is

weighted

Example: Method 4: Weighted Traveling Average:

John wants to calculate gross revenues of floor detergent for April utilizing a 4-period leaden traveling mean method. The gross revenues information of January through March is given in the tabular array below.

weighted

The prognosis for April is 650. ( Li, 2007 )

Method 5: Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality:

This method is rather similar to traveling mean method of gross revenues calculating. By this method the predictor can act upon the prognosis with certain specific periods in contrast with some others. The equation for this method is as follow

Gross saless Forecast for following year= ( L ) ( existent gross revenues this twelvemonth ) + ( 1-L ) ( this year’s gross revenues prognosis )

Where L is smoothing changeless or chance deliberation factor

The predictor would make up one’s mind the value of L on following bases

Reappraisal of gross revenues informations
Knowledge and observation about the conditions
Intuition and experience ( Krishna K Havaldar, 2007 )
Example: Method 5: Exponential Smoothing with Trend and Seasonality:

exponential

Gross saless prognosis for the twelvemonth 2004 = ( 0.2 ) ( 956 ) + ( 0.8 ) ( 880 )

= 895

Method 6: Decomposition Method:

Harmonizing to this method the old gross revenues informations is divided sing four major factors act uponing it which are tendency, rhythm, seasonal and fickle events. This method is besides rather similar to traveling mean method of gross revenues calculating. These constituents are so recombined to bring forth the gross revenues prognosis. ( Havaldar, 2010 )

Example: Method 6: Decomposition Method

decomposition

Let’s see the above illustration. Assume that assorted analysis have broken down the old gross revenues informations into the undermentioned constituent into the undermentioned constituent ; a growing of 3 per centum in gross revenues due to the development in engineering, capital formation and population, increased terrorist activities are expected to cut down gross revenues by 5 % , a 10 % decrease in gross revenues is expected due to recession in demand and the gross revenues in the 3rd one-fourth of the twelvemonth are expected to travel up by 15 % due to gay season, as compared to other three quarters.

The predictor would unite the different constituents, as follows, in order to calculate gross revenues of 2008.Supose that the entire gross revenues in 2007 was 956million.The tendency constituent shows that 2008 gross revenues would be 985million ( 1.03 ( 956 ) ) .The gross revenues are reduced due to debut of fickle event constituent to 936 million ( =0.95 ( 985 ) ) .The gross revenues prognosis alterations further due to cyclic constituent of recession to 842million ( =0.9 ( 936 ) ) ) .Thus the one-year gross revenues prognosis for 2008 is 842million.The quarterly gross revenues prognosis would be 210million ( 0.25 ( 842 ) ) , if the seasonal constituent is non considered. The seasonal constituent in 3rd one-fourth would propose 15 percent addition in gross revenues forecast that is 242million ( =1.15 ( 210 ) ) for the 3rd one-fourth and consistent gross revenues prognosis of 200 million ( = ( 842-242 ) /3 ) each for the other here quarters. ( Havaldar, 2010 )

Application:

Haleeb nutrient is one of the biggest dairy merchandise makers in Pakistan. Sing the history and corporate growing, the company has come a long manner since it was foremost established in 1984. The Company was the first in bring forthing pasteurised and UHT treated dairy. It started with merely milk and has now expanded to a scope of nutrient merchandises including juices, desi ghee, butter, powdered milk and several other dairy liquids. Company got ISO 9002 enfranchisement back in 1997 and by the twelvemonth 2000, haleeb was exporting merchandises to the adjacent states. In 2002 company contributed to 54 % of the country’s packed milk market, doing it the taking market portion holder in jammed milk.

With all the innovator abilities the company could non keep the dominant place in market in ulterior old ages. By the twelvemonth 2012 the company was on the brink of bankruptcy due to hapless direction. Company had to sale off most of its portions to last the ruin. The whole direction was changed as the company changed custodies.

Many a ground could be attributed to the ruin of the company. Which are as follow

Expansion of merchandise scope without proper market study and consideration of bing similar merchandises. The development of new merchandises costed a luck to the company and bing merchandises didn’t give any infinite to the new merchandises in the present market. Hence a immense loss was done to the company on debut of new merchandises and their failure.
In order to capture the market and brush off new rivals, immense stocks of merchandises were given on recognition. Retailers filled their stocks with the merchandises. The merchandises did non sell as they were supposed to, due to hapless gross revenues calculating. Hence being perishable merchandises the merchandises were returned to the company after run outing and sitting on the shelves of retail merchants.

Poor gross revenues calculating on the direction side was the biggest ground of ruin. Theseasonal, cyclic, swerving and fickleevents were non catered for. The merchandises were non being produced harmonizing to the market demands and therefore the client non merely moved to the replacement merchandises but changed trueness after acquiring used to the new merchandise. Throughout the twelvemonth the production was kept at the steady gait, without sing the external factors that would make a crisp hiking or autumn in demand of the merchandise. For case being a Muslim state the ingestion of dairy merchandises is increased at around Muslim spiritual festivals like Ramadan and Eid. The use of fresh pick is increased to duplicate in Ramadan and around Eid the ingestion is tripled. Such sudden addition in production was non met with proper production planning. Had the planning been done in consideration with “Decomposition Method” . Not merely the altering market demands would hold been encountered with an aggressive attack but clientage could hold been saved.
Above analysis shows how prediction is an built-in portion of operations and non following it would non merely be the company but could take to its bankruptcy.

Decision:

The direction should alter the prediction method from “Moving Average Method” to “Decomposition Method”. As it is clear from the fact that the current method employed is unable to calculate on long term footing and is unable to foretell the crisp alterations in the market demands.

Decomposition method would seetendency, rhythm, seasonal and fickle eventswhile prediction and through this method non merely immense gross can be generated by escalated gross revenues but besides costs can be cut by keeping the stock list degrees to a desired adequate degrees.

Mentions:

1 )Nagarajan, K. , 2004.Project Management.2 erectile dysfunction. New Delhi: New Age International ( P ) Limited.

2 )Havaldar, 2010.Business Selling ; Text and Cases.3 erectile dysfunction. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill Education Private Limited.

3 )Don Dayananda, R. I. H. H. R. , 2002.Capital Budgeting: Fiscal Appraisals of Investment Projects.1 erectile dysfunction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

4 )Li, L. , 2007.Supply Chain Management: Concepts, Techniques and Practices.1 erectile dysfunction. London: World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

5 )Krishna K Havaldar, V. M. C. , 2007.Gross saless and Distribution Management: Text and Cases.1 erectile dysfunction. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Limited.

6 )Havaldar, K. K. , 2010.Business Selling: Text and Cases.3 erectile dysfunction. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill Education Private Limited.

7 )Edwards, J. , 2015.Understanding Forecast Levels and Methods.[ Online ] Available at: hypertext transfer protocol: //docs.oracle.com/cd/E16582_01/doc.91/e15111/und_forecast_levels_methods.htm # EOAFM00177 [ Accessed 17 March 2015 ] .

8 )Akrani, G. , 2012.What is Production Planning? Meaning Definition Objectives.[ Online ] Available at: hypertext transfer protocol: //kalyan-city.blogspot.com/2012/01/what-is-production-planning-meaning.html [ Accessed 17 March 2015 ] .

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