Undertakings can neglect for a figure of grounds and the hazards are ever high. All undertaking, plan, and portfolio are capable to put on the line, whether positive or negative hazards. The purpose is to diminish negative hazards and heighten positive hazards.
Pull offing hazards is one of the most of import undertakings for the building industry as it straight affects undertaking results. Unfortunately, many organisations do non recognize that there is a demand to include hazard direction as a cardinal component to success in concern. Hence, some organisations delegate the hazard direction undertakings go forthing to person to demands to be after, place, buttocks, develop response programs, and command hazards or make merely part/ parts of the hazard processes. It is non integrated into their undertaking direction doctrine.
Undertaking hazard direction has been intensively discussed in recent old ages. Undertakings are going shared attempts of multiple parties building industry is a good illustration of an country, where the undertaking result is delivered in an highly complex histrion web. This paper discuss & A ; identified the common and specific hazards that may happen in the substructure undertakings & A ; specially in the H2O intervention works undertakings in Egypt & A ; so we make initial appraisal to these hazards through a questionnaire was designed utilizing the matrix method & A ; so we make analysing of the responses of this questionnaire.
Introduction
This paper is focused merely on the qualitative appraisal of the hazards. We use the matrix method for the appraisal of these hazards.
Responses to the questionnaire were so collected and analyzed. The analysis included ranking the hazards in footings of grade of happening ( chance ) ( v.high, high, med, low, really low ) & A ; the degree of influences ( impact ) ( v.high, high, med, low, really low ) as the undermentioned matrices:
A general H2O supply system is composed of H2O beginnings, natural H2O transmittal pipes, H2O intervention workss, and H2O distribution webs. However, these constituents and subsystems give the greatest chances for both natural and human-related influences because most of them are spatially diverse and accessible. With regard to this, research workers have identified the possible vulnerable countries during the procedure of presenting H2O from the beginnings to the clients as ( see Figure 1 ) : ( 1 ) H2O beginnings ( e.g. , river, reservoir, and Wellss ) ; ( 2 ) H2O intervention works that removes drosss and harmful agents and makes H2O suited for domestic ingestion and other utilizations which consists of: Screen, Mixing armored combat vehicle, Flocculation basin, Settling armored combat vehicle, Sand filter, Disinfection ( 3 ) H2O distribution grapevines that deliver clean H2O on demand to places, commercial constitutions, and industries which consists of: pipes, pumps, junctions/nodes, suiting ( 4 ) storages ( armored combat vehicles & A ; H2O towers ) ; and ( 5 ) other installations ( transmittal pipes, channels, pumps, valves, etc. ) .These vulnerable points are the focal point of hazard appraisal.
Figure 1 Elementss and vulnerable points in a general H2O supply system
QUANTITY REQUIREMENTS:
Factors impacting used See the undermentioned factors impacting usage ashore:
* Water utilizations ( domestic, industrial, fire protection )
* Peak demands ( all utilizations ) .
* Other indispensable demands.
* Missions of the activity.
* Climatic effects.
Water intervention works
Water intervention works is the most of import installation in a H2O supply system to take contaminations in natural H2O, disinfect treated H2O, and produce potable H2O to consumers. However, jeopardies may be introduced during the procedure of intervention, or risky fortunes may let contaminations to go through through intervention in important concentrations.
Components of potable H2O can be introduced through the intervention procedure, including chemical additives used in the intervention procedure or merchandises in contact with H2O. Furthermore, suboptimal filtration following filter backwashing can take to the debut of pathogens into the distribution system. Three properties are important to H2O users:
* There must be equal measures of H2O on demand.
* It must be delivered at sufficient force per unit area.
* It must be safe to utilize.
In our paper we will concentrate on the Water intervention works in the H2O supply system which considers an of import portion in the H2O supply system. We will discourse the hazards may happen in the undertakings & A ; we will do an initial appraisal to these hazards but at the beginning we will give overview of hazard direction in the building undertakings specially the substructure undertakings which owned by the authorities, & A ; we will discourse the hazards from the position of contractor.
Research methodological analysis
A questionnaire was designed for appraisal for all possible hazards that may happen in the H2O intervention works undertakings in EGYPT which some of these hazards are general hazards that may go on in all substructure undertakings and some are specific hazards for the H2O intervention works undertakings through the building & A ; operation stage as discussed old in the phase of hazards designation & A ; so send on to some of directors in. This paper is focused merely on the qualitative appraisal of the hazards. We use the matrix method for the appraisal of these hazards.
Responses to the questionnaire were so collected and analyzed. The analysis included ranking the hazards in footings of grade of happening ( chance ) ( v. high, high, med, low, really low ) & A ; the degree of influences ( impact ) ( v. high, high, med, low, really low ) as the undermentioned matrices:
1- Identification of hazards
Classs of hazards for substructure and service bringing undertakings:
1-Political hazards:
Political hazards are the first class of hazards identified. It contains all the hazards of authorities actions that may jeopardize a undertaking.
1-1 Political support hazards:
Host authorities support is indispensable for any substructure undertakings ( ex: authorities support for the proprietor disputes on land )
1-2 Taxation hazards:
Tax hazards mat rises of revenue enhancement rate, or applied new revenue enhancement duties, which, may take to diminish the booster net income and imbalanced undertaking hard currency flow.
1-3 Import/export limitations hazard:
The import and export limitation hazard covers the statute law alterations, which arrange the import of the equipment.
1-4 Failure to obtain blessings.
Failure to obtain blessing hazard occurs when the cardinal or local authorities authorization does non O.K. the project-related issues in clip or even call off the 1s already approved. Obtaining blessings for a undertaking from complex web of authorities bureaus and sections, from municipal to provincial to cardinal authorities degrees, can be highly time-consuming procedure, detaining full undertakings and aching their fiscal viability.
2-Financial hazards:
The hazard that the moneymans will non supply or go on to supply support to the undertaking
2-1 Delayed Payment by the authorities:
Payments on clip are considered highly of import by the contractors maintain the hard currency flow and extinguish fiscal troubles. Delayed payment will act upon the fiscal state of affairs of the contractor, particularly if the due payment is significant and or delayed for along clip.
2-2 Changes in jurisprudence & A ; ordinance:
Local governments and authorities have specific codifications and ordinances that might be changed or revised from clip to clip. These ordinances must be adhered to by contactors. But this has low chance to occurrence in our undertaking because it is owned by the authorities.
2-3 Inflation hazards:
This hazard class chiefly depends on the economic conditions of the state. As the rising prices increases this hazard becomes more of import.
2-4 Interest rate alterations.
2-5 Devaluation hazards.
2-6 Financial failure:
Fiscal failure of any party ( contractor or proprietor ) wills important impact the undertakings agenda and accordingly the budget. This is more likely happen in large undertakings where the proprietor ( authorities ) might non hold sufficient fund for the undertaking or the contractor commands low on the undertaking.
3- Development hazards:
Development hazards describes the hazard of the command processs, which are really of import portion of the undertaking, the command rating standards must be clearly defined and the commands must be evaluated in a public and nonsubjective mode, & A ; the opportunities for success are predictable.
The competitory command systems normally lead to footings and conditions more favourable to the national involvement. An orderly and crystalline command process should besides win public support for that undertaking which can work out the jobs that face the contractor such as land proprietor differences.
3-1 Bidding hazards:
The command procedure in Egypt includes the undermentioned hazards, which can confront the contactor:
– contractor spend high cost for the readying of the feasibleness surveies, probe, design, planning and appraisal of the undertaking to be able to tender.
– Contractor warred about the hazards of their advanced proposals being put out to competitory stamp without deriving exclusivity or discriminatory intervention from other rivals.
3-2 Planning hold:
The planning hold hazards refer to the hold of the stamp rating by the authorities functionaries whom responsible to make such undertaking.
3-3 Approval hazards:
Delaies in blessing hazard appear when the cardinal of local authorities authorization does non O.K. the project-related issues in clip. Obtaining blessings for a undertaking from complex web of authorities bureaus and sections, from municipal to provincial to cardinal authorities degrees, can be highly time-consuming procedure, detaining full undertakings and aching their fiscal viability.
3-4 Force majeure hazard:
Force majeure hazard is the hazard that a specified event wholly outside the control of either party will happen and will ensue in a hold or default by the contractor in the public presentation of its contractual duties. for illustration cyclone, temblor, eruption of war.
4-Site hazard:
Site hazard is the hazard that the undertaking land will be unavailable or unable to be used at the needed clip because of Land proprietor disputes that the site will bring forth unforeseen liabilities, with the consequence that the service bringing and grosss are adversely affected.
4-1 Site entree:
This hazard class refers to the right of manner and entree to the undertaking site. This an of import class particularly if the undertaking is in a distant or undeveloped country or where entree is limited to little trucks where big building tools like large trucks and stevedores can non acquire into the undertaking site. Besides, this of import when the undertaking is located in a really engorged country or entree to other installations and public countries need to be blocked or detoured in some phases of the undertaking.
4-2 Statutory blessings.
4-3 Environmental issues
4-4 differing site status:
This is a clear hazard class and could go on in most of building undertakings. For case the dirt conditions alterations and the contractor might confront or difficult dirt during digging alternatively of soft dirt as the top bed at the site showed or as the stamp papers may hold indicated. Another illustration is belowground inhumed public-service corporation piping, power overseas telegrams and high H2O table country. These types of differing site conditions occur largely in redevelopment and /or enlargement of bing undertakings where new building interface with the bing constructions. These differing site conditions will necessitate excess attempts and may ask particular equipment and tools for digging and/or de-watering.
4-5 Suitability of the site and any existing substructure:
Means bing of any belowground substructures ( e.g. sewage pipes )
5- Construction hazards:
Construction hazards are the identified hazard class which contains the hazards faced the undertaking during the building stage which can be extremely affect on the undertaking cost and in bend the investing needs to finish the undertaking. It can be endanger to the feasibleness of the undertaking.
5-1 Delay hazards:
Delay hazard means hold in the building clip agenda which, can be occur due to hapless undertaking direction applied or due to bad cost appraisal, which lead to fiscal failure.
5-2 Cost overproduction hazards:
Cost overproduction hazard occur when building costs exceed original estimations, either due to rising prices, not realistic cost appraisal, inordinate design alterations or deficiency of hazard direction model.
5-3 Re public presentation hazard:
Re public presentation hazard is occurred due to retrace or maintains the bad work done by unqualified contractor.
5-4 Completion hazard:
Completion hazard refers to the non-completion of the undertaking due to consequence of force majeure or unanticipated dirt conditions.
5-5 Variation hazards:
A alteration in work is an of import hazard class in the building undertakings. It could be change in work processs, methodological analysis o alteration of programs and range of work. These alterations might take to alter orders destructions and re-working and must be considered in the appraisals of hazards because they affect the undertaking budget, agenda, safety and quality.
Normally alterations in work consequence because of deficient planning at the undertaking definition phase or because of deficiency of clear range and pulling item or merely because the proprietor s desire to do alterations to the undertaking.
5-6 Loss or harm to work:
Loss or harm to work hazards rises by the unanticipated dirt conditions or dislocation of equipment, which are common happenings on any building site, particularly for big civil technology undertakings. Normally, these will hold reverberation on cost and clip but the effects are normally surmountable with today s engineering.
5-7 Force majeure hazard:
Force majeure hazard is the hazard that a specified event wholly outside the control of either party will happen and will ensue in a hold or default by the contractor in the public presentation of its contractual duties during the building period. For illustration, temblor, eruption of war.
5-8 Mistakes in installing of pipes.
5-9 Mistakes in installing valves of pipes.
5-10 The permeableness of the reservoir during a trial.
5-11 Labor & A ; equipment handiness:
This hazard class is chiefly related to the handiness of some of the resources viz. , labour, stuff and equipment. Certain occupations may necessitate specific skilled expertness and /or particular stuff and equipment that might non available or scarce in the local market and take a long clip to secure. For illustration a skilled a qualified welder or particular lifting and adjustment of some heavy construction that may necessitate Crane capacity or piece of equipment that is non available in the local market may coerce the contractor to engage a certain skilled labour and import the particular piece of the equipment or alter the building method to accommodate. This is more likely to go on in complex major undertakings or undertakings affecting some grade of high technological complexness like H2O intervention works undertaking.
5-12 Labor & A ; equipment productiveness:
Like the old hazard class, certain occupations affecting the productiveness of labours and equipment might be affected because of the complexness of occupations or the nature of the work. if this non everyday, so the labour and/or the equipment operator demand to travel through a learning curve. Another illustration that might impact labour and equipment productiveness is the morale of the labour and the usage of faulty tools and equipment.
5-13 faulty stuff:
Material is indispensable resource for building undertakings and there is demand for quality control and quality confidence to extinguish material replacing and re-work. this hazard class becomes more of import for lump amount contracts if the specifications were non good defined.
5-14 labour differences:
This is more likely to go on in big companies where the work forces are multinationals who come from different states with different background or where the relationships between direction and work force are tense. Normally any labour difference is either resolved internally or by the local governments and constabularies.
5-15 Safety & A ; accident:
Safety and accidents in building undertakings can non overlooked, particularly when the undertakings involves deep digging or high lift building. The hazard class is inherited in the building industry but can be minimized by following safety regulations and the usage of safety equipment such as goggles, safety chapeaus and places.
5-16 Coordination with bomber. Contractor:
Coordination with sub-contractors and stuff providers is an of import undertaking particularly in a multi-player environment like large building undertakings. Beside it could be hazardous if non maintain smooth, in a timely mode and uninterrupted. Miss-coordination between subcontractors and stuff providers ( particularly for long lead points ) will take to schedule and budget overproductions.
5-17 Quality of work:
Quality of work would reflect the repute of the contractor and might either rank him on the top of contractors or coerce him out of the market. By and large, proprietors ( authorities ) strive to acquire a choice terminal merchandise by their undertaking and contractors try their best to present choice undertakings. However ; hapless craft that leads to destruction and rework will negatively impact the undertaking budget and agenda. Besides, interior quality of work will reflect the bad repute of the contractor.
Good quality and confidence plans will assist cut down the negative effects of this class.
6- Operation hazards:
Operation hazard describes the class of hazards faced the undertaking during the warrant period of the installations, which starts after undertaking completion & A ; continued for one twelvemonth such as equipment dislocation or the find of defects in the work which may impede the gross bring forthing capableness.
6-1 Technical hazards:
The dislocation of equipment or failures of any portion of the undertaking which are common happenings on any undertaking, Normally, these will hold reverberations on cost and clip but effects are normally surmountable with today s engineering.
6-2 Corruption hazard:
It the hazard of happening of failure or dislocation in any portion of the H2O intervention works, e.g. ( breakdown of the pipes, or failure of armored combat vehicles in the system ) during the warrant period of the undertaking.
6-4 Force majeure hazard:
Force majeure is the hazard that a specified event wholly outside the control of either party will happen and will ensue in a hold or default by the contractor in the public presentation of its contractual duties during the operation period. For illustration cyclone, temblor, eruption of war.
Water intervention works
Water intervention works is the most of import installation in a H2O supply system to take Contaminants in natural H2O, disinfect treated H2O, and produce potable H2O to consumers.
However, jeopardies may be introduced during the procedure of intervention, or risky fortunes
May let contaminations to go through through intervention in important concentrations. Components of potable H2O can be introduced through the intervention procedure, including chemical additives used in the intervention procedure or merchandises in contact with H2O. Furthermore, suboptimal filtration following filter backwashing can take to the debut of pathogens into the distribution system. Meanwhile utmost natural jeopardies, wilful human onslaughts, or mutuality failures ( e.g. , power failures ) can all present hazards in H2O intervention procedure.
Decision:
Based on the consequences & A ; analysis of the hazards discussed in the old, the undermentioned decisions were reached:
From the analysis of the six hazard classs depended on the questionnaire received from five directors in the Arab company, our decisions were as follow:
* The most critical hazards in the political hazards were the: import & A ; export limitation & A ; failure to obtain blessing, & A ; the lowest critical hazards were: revenue enhancement hazards.
* The most critical hazards in the fiscal hazards were the: devaluation hazards & A ; payment failure. & A ; the lowest critical hazards: rising prices hazards.
* The most critical hazards in the development hazards were the: command hazards & A ; & A ; the lowest critical hazards: force majeure hazards.
* The most critical hazards in the site hazards were the: differing site status hazards & A ; & A ; the lowest critical hazards: site entree hazards.
* The most critical hazards in the building hazards were the cost overproduction hazards & A ; coordination between the subcontractor & A ; the lowest critical hazards: force majeure & A ; some hazards discussed in the matrix.
* The most critical hazards in the operation hazards were the force majeure risks & A ; the lowest critical hazards: proficient hazards.
* At all the most critical hazards class in the building risks class.
Mentions
1. Risk direction of the BOT undertakings in Egypt. by Ibrahim Ahmed Ibrahim Hara Faculty of technology at Cairo University.
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3. hypertext transfer protocol: //www.google.com.eg/search? hl=ar & A ; q=LECTURE+11+RISK+MANAGEMENT & A ; btnG= % D8 % A8 % D8 % AD % D8 % AB % 21 & A ; meta=
4. Hierarchical Risk Assessment of Water
Supply Systems
Huipeng Li
Submitted for the Degree of
Doctor of Doctrine from
Loughborough University
5. ASSESSMENT OF RISK MANAGEMENT PERCEPTION AND PRACTICES OF CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTOR IN SAUDI ARABIA.BY ALI ABDULLAH AL SALMAN.
Appendix
